NOAA predicts above-average hurricane season

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This year's Atlantic hurricane season will be “above average” as a result of high air and ocean temperatures, as well as the El Niño phenomenon, according to a new projection from the National Oceanic and Ocean Administration. the Atmosphere (NOAA, for its acronym in English).

Last May, NOAA forecast a 30% chance of an above-average trop Phone Number List ical storm and hurricane season. The estimate was adjusted in recent days to consider a 60% chance. A little more than three months ago, the agency expected between 12 and 17 named storms, five to nine minor hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes in the Atlantic.

With a 70% confidence range, the new report calls for "14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6 to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater)." , according to NOAA. Of the latter, the agency predicts that between two and five could be major hurricanes, with winds exceeding 110 mph. To put it in context, a typical year sees 14 named tropical storms and seven hurricanes, with three major cyclones.

moonlight reflection in the sea
This hurricane season will depend on a fight in the Atlantic
The Atlantic Ocean is very warm at the moment, which favors the appearance of hurricanes. But will El Niño step in and stop the storms before they start?
In a statement, Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, explained that “the main climate factors expected to influence 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are El Niño in course and warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, including record sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic . Taking those factors into account, the updated outlook calls for more activity, so we urge everyone to prepare now for the season ahead.”

El Niño generates atmospheric conditions that dampen storm activity in the Atlantic. Although the phenomenon is gaining strength in the Pacific Ocean, its effects in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic are not yet visible. “Climate scientists predict that the associated impacts that tend to limit tropical cyclone activity may not be present for much of the remaining hurricane season,” NOAA said.



The Atlantic warms: there will be more hurricanes
Added to this is unprecedented warming in the oceans. On July 31, the average global sea surface temperature reached 20.96°C. The figure represents the warmest moment for the oceans since 2016, when 20.95°C was recorded, according to records from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) of the European Union.

The waters of the North Atlantic recorded the greatest increase. The C3S assured that in June this maritime area reported the highest temperature with an average increase of 0.91°C. Typically, the northern Atlantic region reaches its maximum temperature during the month of September. The North Atlantic reached 24.9° C at the end of June. NOAA scientist Xungang Yin predicted that the area's temperature "will continue to rise in August.